So – Harry is back. Strictly speaking (another topical reference there…) he’s not quite back here. There’s still three-and-a-bit weeks to go before the Together Together tour hits Wembley Stadium for a massive 12 night residency. Reviews from Amsterdam have been mixed – Harry is great, the staging less so – but whether you’re a fan of Mr Styles or not it’s hard not to have heard of him. And indeed it’s almost impossible not to recognise those soft rock, upbeat pop songs with their lush harmonies, infectious guitar hooks, and emotional, often vulnerable lyrics exploring themes of self-discovery, romance, and fame (yes – thank you to AI for that description – I couldn’t have put it better myself).
But why this opening to a blog post on The Kitchen Croxley’s website? Well as the title may suggest, I’m about to speak briefly (well I promise I will try) about a few things which are – let’s be honest – a sign of the times.
It’s been a while since I’ve spoken out frankly about how things are in Hospitality. And that has been a deliberate decision. If you can cast your mind back to the autumn of 2025 then you may recall how involved we were in the campaign to reduce VAT in hospitality. I’m not going to lie to you, the endless media appearances – not to mention the hours tripping over my words made for a pretty stressful time. And when the big day came and nothing we had asked for was addressed – or even mentioned – I felt a bit like I’d gone ten rounds with Tyson Fury and been knocked out. The fight went out of me which hopefully explains why I haven’t gone on about these issues so much this year.
Having said all that I know that some customers will have been relieved. Not everyone wants an economics lecture with their slice of Victoria Sponge, and I respect that. But for those of you that have taken the time to click through and read this post I want to be honest.
- UK hospitality is currently facing an unprecedented wave of closures. Over 760 food service and accommodation companies fell into insolvency in the first three months of the year, that averages 3.4 closures per day.
- Pubs, hotels and restaurants are bearing an estimated £3-4bn of additional costs, not least because of the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.
- Approximately two British pubs closed a day in the first quarter of 2026, according to figures produced by the industry. That’s around 2,400 jobs.
- Several well known brands also decided enough was enough: TGI Fridays earmarked over 35 sites for closure across the UK; Pizza Hut (UK) shuttered 68 restaurants; Leon closed 11 high street locations with over 20 more at risk and Whitbread plan to sell or convert around 200 Beefeater and Brewers Fayre sites.
Why is this? There are many economists and commentators better placed and more qualified than I am who have written about this. I can however speak, from the heart, of our experience and what we have tried to do to survive. Again, I will try hard to keep this brief and to the point. With thanks again to Google/AI for some undisputed facts.
- The UK hospitality sector faces one of the heaviest tax burdens of any major economy, absorbing as much as 75% of pre-tax profits. This pressure is driven by the standard 20% VAT rate, soaring business rates, a higher national living wage, and newly introduced local tourist taxes.
- At the same time, UK customers have endured a prolonged period of falling real disposable incomes which began late 2021. Food, housing and energy prices have sky rocketed and guess what – these price hikes impact hospitality business owners too!
- So it’s a double whammy – perhaps even a triple one. Hospitality’s own tax costs – VAT, NLW, NICs, Business rates etc have risen dramatically. Customers’ own expenses have risen leaving less money to spend on eating and drinking out. But these costs and expenses – food, fuel, rent etc ALSO apply to hospitality businesses.
Is there a solution? Here are a few things that could be – perhaps?
- You may see more and more hospitality owners working in their own business. Why? To save on payroll as they frequently take no wage (and no dividend as very few are even making a profit). And it’s not just wages that make up payroll of course – it’s the on-costs including National Insurance and pension contributions of course. Does this help? Temporarily yes but working 70 hours a week can’t be a long term solution.
- You may see fewer staff generally in your local coffee shop or restaurant. Again this can save money in the short term. But it may impact customer service, and employee well being and satisfaction will fall if there’s barely time for a break during a busy shift.
- Another option is reduced opening hours – we are trialling this. But the confusion and disappointment this can cause has to be managed, along with levels of stock if waste is to be avoided.
Some have said that things have changed. To return to what Harry said – is this just a Sign of the times? When you have machines that can make a perfectly acceptable (to some) coffee simply by inserting a pod, when supermarkets sell muffins for 50p, and a meal deal from Tesco buys you a sandwich, snack and drink for less than a fiver. When you can chat to your friends on Facetime, play games online, share a glass of wine on a zoom call – all from the comfort of your sofa – is there any need for a pub?
I tried to promise this wouldn’t be a long post. But I do hope it may be a conversation starter. If – like us – you still believe in the value of community, of coming together in “real life”, of eating freshly made food and enjoying a drink or two with friends at the same table – let us know. And if not – is there even a future for places such as The Kitchen, for pubs and bars, restaurants and cafes?
You can let us know by emailing linda@thekitchencroxley.com I promise to read every single response and look forward to hearing your thoughts. Let’s see if we can think outside the box and come up with some solutions that we may even be able to share with other businesses finding things tough at the moment. I look forward to hearing from you!
Linda x